2025 Speakers:

Profitability, Market Growth, and Applications Beyond Oncology

The group widely agreed that ADCs are currently ahead in profitability and adoption, with oncology applications already proving commercial success. The ADC market is growing rapidly (≈30% CAGR), primarily driven by cancer therapies, but opportunities beyond oncology were also highlighted. “Apart from oncology, there is work being done on protein degradators and immunomodulators. Even radionucleotides are being delivered via ADCs,” one expert explained, emphasizing the potential for targeted delivery of otherwise toxic molecules.

Oligos are earlier in their commercial trajectory (≈16% CAGR), yet they promise broad applications. “We also see an opportunity for the oligos to continue to grow and move from single applications for rare diseases to multiple applications for chronic diseases,” a panelist noted, reflecting their long-term potential. While ADCs are generating revenue today, oligos represent the next frontier, with their ultimate impact still emerging as the technology matures and scales.

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Complexity of ADCs and Oligos

Manufacturing ADCs requires multiple specialized capabilities: production of highly potent cytotoxic payloads, linker design, antibody manipulation, conjugation, and careful DAR (drug-to-antibody ratio) control to ensure batch consistency. This demands specialized facilities (OEB5 containment), highly skilled staff, and integrated capabilities often only accessible to larger CDMOs or pharma. As one panelist noted, “It’s very complex; you have a cytotoxic payload, you have to perform conjugation, and at every step you need specialized manpower.”

For oligonucleotides, complexity arises from long monomer synthesis steps, truncated sequences, and the difficulty of scaling beyond early clinical stages. While small-batch synthesis is manageable, transitioning to commercial scale is a major challenge due to equipment costs and process robustness. Peptides and oligos also require 50–70 synthesis steps for mid-sized sequences, making automation and innovative chemistry approaches critical.

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Strategic Positioning, Pricing, and ROI

For CDMOs, profitability strategies differ depending on scale and business model. Larger players (with funding and infrastructure) are well positioned to invest in both ADCs and oligos. Mid-size and smaller companies, however, must “pick their battles,” either by focusing narrowly (e.g., payload synthesis, linker chemistry) or by excelling in innovation and problem-solving through scalable CMC development. The key to profitability is not breadth but depth; being a reliable partner that accelerates timelines and reduces risk for biotech clients.

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Outlook and Industry Trajectory

The consensus was that ADCs are a “plane already in flight,” with established commercial traction and predictable revenue growth over the next 5–10 years. Oligos are “still at the gate or on the runway,” offering long-term upside but with greater uncertainty. ADCs are generating cash today, oligos are writing the playbook for tomorrow. Ultimately, the outlook is modality and organization dependent. Big Pharma and large CDMOs can hedge by investing in both, while emerging CDMOs and biotechs are better served by specializing in niches like payload chemistry, linker design, or scalable oligo synthesis. Overall, ADCs are expected to dominate near-term oncology markets, while oligos could eventually reach broader chronic disease areas if manufacturing and cost challenges are overcome.